This opinion paper aims to offer a sober, reality-based analysis of the war in Ukraine as it enters its third consecutive year. Contrary to widespread narratives — including those propagated by many respected analysts and policymakers — I argue that Ukraine’s defeat was essentially sealed on February 24, 2022. The industrial imbalance, demographic realities, and Russia’s framing of the war as “existential” leave little room for alternative outcomes.

Despite massive Western support, Ukraine’s structural weaknesses have only deepened, while Russia has adapted, mobilized, and secured critical external partnerships. Furthermore, it is my opinion that much of the ongoing conflict is no longer about achieving a Ukrainian victory, but rather about weakening Russian capabilities and buying time for NATO.

In this opinion paper, I will explore two potential post-war scenarios: a full “Belarusification” of Ukraine under Russian control, and a limited partition of the country. I will assess the likely military, hybrid, and non-military consequences for Europe under each outcome.

Moreover, I challenge the increasingly popular idea of a “frozen conflict” and argue that neither Russia’s strategic calculus nor Ukraine’s deteriorating position make such an outcome viable.

Finally, I urge that Europe must prepare now — militarily, politically, economically — for the profound shifts the end of this war will bring to the continent’s security landscape. The post-Cold War order is ending, and a harsher, more dangerous era is emerging. Understanding this new reality is essential for any serious policymaking going forward.