Founder & Director · Praevisio Institute
MarcusGhebrehiwet
Geopolitical Analyst · Amsterdam
Specialising in Eastern Europe, Russia, and the Middle East. Analytical framework grounded in the realist tradition — power, structure, and the logic of great power competition.
About
Founder & Director,
Praevisio Institute
Marcus Ghebrehiwet leads strategic analysis and geopolitical risk research at Praevisio, focused on Eastern Europe, Russia, and the Middle East.
His approach is grounded in the realist school of IR — the view that power and structural incentives, not ideology or declared intent, are the primary drivers of state behaviour. He regards great power competition as the defining feature of the current international order.
Before Praevisio, Marcus worked as a Data Engineer, Business Analyst, and Freelance Geopolitical Analyst — a combination that gives the Institute’s work both technical rigour and analytical depth.
Career
Education
Expertise & Framework
Where the analysis runs deepest — and how it is built
International relations are shaped by the distribution of power, the pursuit of national interest, and the structural pressures of an anarchic system — regardless of what states profess. Ideology, rhetoric, and multilateral commitments are treated not as independent drivers but as instruments of interest. Geopolitical events are chapters in longer historical narratives of competition and realignment, not isolated incidents. Connecting present developments to their historical antecedents consistently produces more accurate forecasts than analysis anchored solely in the present moment.
Publications & Research
Publications & written analysis
Get in touch
Enquiries, consulting & speaking engagements
For research enquiries, strategic consulting, or speaking engagements, reach out directly. All conversations are treated in strict confidence.